Last August, with the 2010-11 season rapidly approaching, I put my balls on the line by predicting the full Premier League table. Now it’s time to look back on how wrong I was…
1. Chelsea. “Chelsea probably have the best squad in the league, so I think they’ll replicate last season’s league achievement and top the table.”
I wasn’t far off here, but I didn’t account for an inexplicable loss of form for a dismal six-week spell before the turn of the year. After making a thunderous start to the season with back-to-back 6-0 wins, Carlo Ancelotti’s failure to account for his top players fatiguing meant Chelsea fell well behind in the title race. Although they did gamely battle back until within three points of Manchester United, they didn’t deserve anything more than runners-up.
2. Manchester United. “We seem to write them off every season, but United always end up there or thereabouts. It may be that a season of transition beckons.”
I wrote the above in reference to United’s policy of signing younger players last year, but I didn’t expect Javier Hernandez to have such an impact in his first season. The 23-year-old was a magnificent addition to the team, and there will be plenty more goals in him during his United career. Excellent early season form from Dimitar Berbatov, the reliability of Edwin Van Der Sar and some vital contributions from an unusually off-colour Wayne Rooney were enough to elevate United above the rest.
3. Arsenal. “A factor could be the form of their star man – as the Fábregas to Barcelona saga rumbles on, will he be able to focus on the job in hand? I envisage familiar disappointment.”
In the end, the Fábregas question was something of an irrelevance as injury meant Cesc only started 20 league games. “Familiar disappointment” could almost be embroidered on the club badge, as Arsenal were once again well in the race going into April, but fell away badly and ended up finishing fourth.
4. Everton. “This season, David Moyes’s squad looks like the best Everton side in years, and I expect Marouane Fellaini and Dinyar Bilyaletdinov to have huge influences after a period of settling-in.”
I can’t defend this prediction, apart from the bit about Moyes’s squad. They do indeed look stronger than ever, but another awful start meant they were in the relegation battle in December. Moyes must be questioning what he gets wrong in pre-season for the Toffees to consistently start the season so dreadfully. Fellaini, meanwhile, missed half the season through injury, and Bilyaletdinov is fast being found out as an immobile luxury. Everton’s form in the second half of the season does make you question how they’d fare if they could just solve that early season problem.
5. Liverpool. “The presence of Roy Hodgson can only change things so much. I feel that last season’s miserable campaign is being forgotten all too readily in the face of some encouraging pre-season displays and the presence of the excellent Joe Cole.”
Whoops! “The excellent Joe Cole” is a phrase we haven’t heard since pre-season, as the ex-Chelsea man’s impact on Liverpool has been negligible. Changes elsewhere have been enormous, the dismal reign of Roy Hodgson and the sight of a forlorn Fernando Torres now a distant memory as Kenny Dalglish’s revolution, aided by Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll, has turned the Reds around. Still, not far off on the league position…
6. Manchester City. “The sheer strength of their squad will ensure City will be in the hunt, but I think that they will be under huge pressure to succeed this season, and that they will struggle as a result. It’s seemingly a matter of time before City fulfil the potential their wealth suggests, but this won’t be their season and I don’t expect the cautious Roberto Mancini to still be in charge come May 2011.”
So do we praise Mancini, or comment that it’s impossible to fail with that much money? I think the Italian will take satisfaction from the fact that he wasn’t expected still to be in a job, let alone with a 3rd-place finish and an FA Cup in hand. I also predicted that Yaya Touré and David Silva would not lift them to unscaled heights – as it happened, Touré’s goals won them the FA Cup, and David Silva has proved himself as one of the most technical, skillful players in the Premier League.
7. Aston Villa. “Much depends on the players O’Neill eventually does bring in, and unless they get that creative presence in midfield they have been lacking for some time now, I expect them to finish comfortably off the pace for that Champions League spot.”
Well, that’s not fair, O’Neill resigned about two days later. His replacement Gerard Houllier did not address that midfield problem, but even so I was amazed by Villa’s plight for much of this season. Without the addition of £18m Darren Bent, who knows where they might have finished? As it was, they recovered from a lengthy spell of poor form to finish in the top half.
8. Tottenham Hotspur. “They will lack the wherewithal and experience of teams like Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United to come back strong from high-intensity Champions League games and I expect them to struggle to get going in the league.”
Not too embarrassed about this one, the prediction that Spurs’ league season wouldn’t get going was an accurate one. The addition of Rafael Van Der Vaart was inspired and Spurs were involved in some magical games this season (particularly the two North London derbies) but distractions in Europe, as well as the improvement of Manchester City, meant they were never really in control of their own destiny. A fifth-place finish is no disgrace, but they have ground to make up next season.
9. Sunderland. “Bruce knows his side needed another dimension or two, and the additions of wide-men Ahmed Al-Muhammadi and Cristian Riveros could prove inspired. A strong home record and the presence of Darren Bent could take Sunderland to a top-half finish.”
There’s no doubt that the loss of Darren Bent hurt Sunderland. When Bent made his debut for Aston Villa on January 22nd this year, Steve Bruce’s side were sixth in the table and level on points with Chelsea. Following his departure they went nine games without a win and only won three more games before the end of the season. Chelsea finished twenty-four points ahead of them. The Mackems have reason to be disappointed given their position going into the second half of the season, but a tenth-place finish still represents a decent season.
10. West Ham United. “I expect Avram Grant’s new side to do well and improve on last season’s disappointing showing. Under Grant they will be spirited and organised, which is more than they looked last season under Zola.”
I could only have got this one more wrong if I’d described West Ham as a powerful floating orb of indefinable colour and unknown origin, possibly extra-terrestrial, slowly destroying major North American cities by brainwashing its inhabitants. West Ham were abject this season and the Hammers’ board should have succeeded in sacking Avram Grant when they tried to in January. That bungling of the appointment of Martin O’Neill quite possibly cost West Ham their top-flight status, and they went down without so much as a whimper.
Those are some really, really bad predictions.